The reason behind China standoff against India and massive troops build-up at Galwan valley and not a sign of disengagement until now despite multiple border talks between India and China including High-level Military and Diplomatic meetings over border row, This is quite interesting in every single meeting China agree to pull back and reaffirm to maintain the status quo on LAC as of before May 2020. However, the situation on the ground remains unchanged.
The motive behind the Chinese aggregation finds its root back in 2019 When India abrogate Articles 370 (which was a non-permanent amendment in the Indian constitution and hindering the development of the Jammu Kashmir and Ladakh region was self-discriminatory against the rights of minorities of this region) and reclaim the area of Pakistan occupied Kashmir, Gilgit Baltistan, Aksai Chin and Saksham Valley (illegally gifted to China by Pakistan) as a sovereign and integral part of India. Which is illegally occupied by both China and Pakistan. New Delhi also reaffirms on taking physical control on these lost territories soon.
In the wake of these development Chinese establishment got worried as this apparent risk the billion-dollar CPEC project which illegally passes through Indian territory through Karakoram pass. CPEC is the brainchild of CCP a move to choke India through the ring of Perls, As china see New Delhi as a formidable competitor and Indian Navy can block Chinese ship entry in Indian ocean by choking Malacca strait and Sunda strait the only two narrow passage to enter in the Indian ocean in possible conflict with India. This lead to a blockade of china’s energy and supply routes as 80% of china Oil tanker passes through the Indian ocean.
To secure China‘s energy demand and supply china has pumped in billions of dollars in the CPEC project to safeguard its energy supply line and check on India through building Naval bases at Gadawar port in Pakistan. After this development, China, was so worried it can not afford to lose the billion of the dollar in addition and edge over India, Watching its big CPEC strategy doomed and it also doesn’t afford a direct war with India for now after Doklam crises China is pretty informed about India capability.
The frustration led to Chinese General Xu Qiliang Islamabad visit where he was tasked to pursue Pakistani side to attack India in the Northern border and secure the area as much they can to make a buffer zone, In his visit, he met with most of top-notch Pakistani Corp commander and so-called political leaders also affirmed all possible support to them. Since his visit China, deliberately tried to peruse Pakistan to attack India. However the Pakistan army didn’t follow up as Pakistan Army is in defensive posture now, Soon after his visit, the Pakistan army called their corp commander meting in GHQ Rawalpindi in that particular meeting they briefly discuss the possibility, intensity, Scale, preparedness, outcomes of war and possible Indian retaliation.
The outcomes of the meeting were if they went to war they lose for sure, Many corp commanders also highlight that the territory they are holding now would be no longer in their control as India is already prepared for this operation and waiting for the initiation of a mistake by their side to take back full control. In addition, they lose CPEC too, losing CPEC would have no importance for them in china theses all sequence is probably missed or ignored by RAW due to overwhelming masterstroke by India.
India action against Pakistan terror misadventure have already lessened through the surgical strike in POK and airstrike in Balakot at JeM terror outfit Headquarter clearly show Indian armed force preparedness but in the same time, they also had to make China appeased as China is the largest FDI fund and weapon provider to Pakistan. This comes as we witness huge embracement to Pakistan PM Imran Khan in UNGA speech, Where he intentionally overruled the time frame.
Ultimately China had no choice but to intervene on his own as a result we are witnessing the PLA encroachment in Galwan and multiple locations in Ladakh. To execute this plan PLA already prepared last year where they conduct joint exercise with Pakistan including each other bases to check inter-operational prowess. The intention of China to cut Siachin glacier from Indian reach capture DBO airstrip and make a buffer zone between Karakoram Pass and Indian troops and Galwan in ideal location according to the strategic view of this operation.
Now if china pullbacks they risk 65$bn CPEC and dream project of curbing India through the ring of pearl plus international image. If they go to war either way they lose, So china is cleverly playing pressure tactics game to capture strategically important points without firing a bullet to use as leverage in the future. If China pulls back they will again come with more preparedness India needs to be prepared for possible future conflicts. Also needs a concrete policy to deal with China.